ACUS01 KWNS 021235
SWODY1
SPC AC 021232
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2012
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE PW ESTIMATES...AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
00Z TO 12Z ALONG THE TX COAST. MEANWHILE...A DIFFUSE SRN STREAM
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY. THE MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TX COAST.
THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SPARSE
STORM COVERAGE AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE RISK OF
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS ESEWD AND APPROACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK LEE CYCLONE IN WRN KS WILL DEVELOP EWD
TO SRN MO IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND THIS WILL
INDUCE A SWLY/WSWLY LLJ FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
TONIGHT. MOISTENING ABOVE A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR 7 C/KM WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE AOA 500 J/KG OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...WHEN A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAA REGIME.
..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 11/02/2012
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