DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041955
SWODY1
SPC AC 041953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA AND
SC...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE FORECAST
SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...SEE MCD 2099.

..BROYLES.. 11/04/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012/

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...WITH A FEW NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE FEATURE IS SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EAST TX. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TONIGHT. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE LA/SRN MS PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FARTHER
EAST INTO AL/GA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
ALONG THE FRONT OVER EAST GA/WEST SC BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TRACK
EASTWARD/OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. THIS REGION WILL SEE
SUBSTANTIAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. RATHER STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

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