DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050058
SWODY1
SPC AC 050056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ATLANTIC STATES...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MORE PROMINENT
POSITIVELY-TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE OH/TN
VALLEYS. THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z MON. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE
IMPULSES WERE DETECTED BY SATELLITE TRACKING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES TO COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITHIN WLY MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW LOCATED BETWEEN THE OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH AND A SUB-TROPICAL JET
OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO TO NRN FL. A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
SRN SC EARLY THIS EVENING AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH
NERN SC ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AND OFFSHORE BY MID EVENING.
A TRAILING BOUNDARY THROUGH SRN GA TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL
ADVANCE SEWD INTO NRN FL AND THE NERN GULF TONIGHT/EARLY MON
MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE SOON AND THE LOSS
OF DAY TIME HEATING STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER LAND AND THE ATTENDANT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH GREATLY THIS EVENING. A
SMALL AREA OF LOW SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY /5%/ IS ALL THAT REMAINS
OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH THIS LOCATED OVER NERN SC AND
FAR SERN NC WHERE STORMS ARE ONGOING. THE STRONGEST REMAINING
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 02-03Z.

...SWRN MO/ERN OK/WRN-SRN AR...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION
TONIGHT/EARLY MON AS IT DIGS SSEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NERN KS EARLY
THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SEWD REACHING WEST CENTRAL MO BY
12Z MON. WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG AND E OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SWD FROM THE KS/MO LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD SUPPORT
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS SHOULD BE OVER SWRN MO INTO FAR ERN OK/WRN AR
WHERE ASCENT/MIDLEVEL COOLING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PLAINS TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 100-350 J PER KG/ AND
EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION. WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.

..PETERS.. 11/05/2012

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