DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221949
SWODY1
SPC AC 221946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST THU NOV 22 2012

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK EXCEPT TO REMOVE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX FROM THUNDER AS IT APPEARS IT MAY REMAIN
CAPPED.

..JEWELL.. 11/22/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST THU NOV 22 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
MORNING WILL AMPLIFY AND CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. A SFC LOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
SRN ONTARIO/NRN MN WILL ALSO SHIFT E/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE S/SW. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
GREATS LAKES/MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. THE NRN
SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL SURGE EWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS WHILE THE SRN SEGMENT SLOWLY SINKS S/SE FROM SRN AR INTO
CNTRL TX BY FRI MORNING.

...LOWER MI S/SW INTO NE OK...
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 50S SOUTH TO THE 40S NORTH ARE EXPECTED AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S. HOWEVER...LITTLE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED. AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /LESS
THAN 500 J PER KG MUCAPE/ ABOVE THE 850-700 MB LAYER MAY BE ADEQUATE
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES RESULT IN SOME
SEMBLANCE OF ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES...LESS THAN FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY.

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