ACUS01 KWNS 021605
SWODY1
SPC AC 021603
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2012
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S TX...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCURRING OFFSHORE WITHIN A CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL
CIRCULATION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG A
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SPARSE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.
...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
A SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD OUT OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND INTO WRN MO OVERNIGHT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING
LLJ...FOCUSING ASCENT MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN MO AND INTO
SRN IL. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM SHOULD AID IN MUCAPE
VALUES OF 300-500 J/KG...SUPPORTING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY AFTER 03/04Z. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ANY HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SVR...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR SVR
PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 11/02/2012
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