DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031243
SWODY1
SPC AC 031241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SAT NOV 03 2012

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/NE TX TO SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE FROM SRN MO TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS TX AND AR.
MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/
HAS ALREADY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL/E TX...AND WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD NEWD
TO AT LEAST SE AR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG
THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL/NE TX INTO SRN AR. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE WEAK...LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM AND MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING.

..THOMPSON/LEITMAN.. 11/03/2012

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