ACUS01 KWNS 271626
SWODY1
SPC AC 271624
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2012
VALID 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF ERN CONUS...PART OF REGIME OF GEN
TROUGHING EXTENDING SEWD FROM LARGE CYCLONE OVER CANADIAN ARCTIC.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ANALYZED OVER OH/NRN KY AREA
WILL MOVE EWD/OFFSHORE MID-ATLC REGION THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
NWRN GULF AND LA COASTAL AREA -- WILL MOVE ENEWD...REMAIN POSITIVELY
TILTED...AND WEAKEN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CROSS GA/SC COAST IN
00-06Z TIME FRAME.
AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM WRN NC SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
AL...SERN MS AND SERN LA...PRECEDED BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD/PRECIP
COVER OVER SRN PIEDMONT/GA AND BY WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION FROM WRN
FL PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS MS RIVER MOUTH.
...CENTRAL-ERN GULF COAST...
GEN WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN NOTED WITH PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INLAND
AS IT MOVES EWD...AND THESE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BULK OF
THUNDER POTENTIAL STAYING OVER GULF WATERS FOR REMAINDER PERIOD.
SFC COLD FRONT AND ANY PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE ZONES ARE
EXPECTED TO SPATIALLY OUTPACE RETURN FLOW OVER FL...RESULTING IN
CONTINUED NET GULF SHIFT AND DECREASE IN GEN TSTM POTENTIAL WITH
TIME. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
WELL. MEANWHILE...RAIN-COOLED PREFRONTAL AIR MASS INLAND IS
UNLIKELY TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY PRIOR TO FROPA...IN ENVIRONMENT
ALREADY CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LOWER BOUNDARY-LAYER
THETAE THAN OVER GULF.
..EDWARDS/PETERS.. 11/27/2012
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