DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151729
SWODY2
SPC AC 151727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST THU NOV 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...THE FL PENINSULA AND KEYS...
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S TO THE SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA. WHILE GENERALLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION MAY MATERIALIZE INVOF THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES...CONVECTIVE DEEPENING SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY THE
COMBINATION OF /1/ WEAK FRONTAL ASCENT.../2/ A MID-LEVEL WARM LAYER
CENTERED NEAR/JUST ABOVE THE 700-MB LEVEL PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND /3/ THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH
PW VALUES AOB 1.3 INCHES. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SRN FL PENINSULA FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
LIMITED TO SUPPORT A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX PIVOTS
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. ASCENT LEADING THIS VORT MAX MAY
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF.
HOWEVER...WITH THE BULK OF THE ASCENT FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND GIVEN NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FL
PENINSULA...THE FL KEYS...OR THE GULF WATERS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE COAST.

...ELSEWHERE...
WHILE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL SUPPORT
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF
PHASING BETWEEN ANY SUBSTANTIAL ASCENT AND BUOYANCY SHOULD GREATLY
LIMIT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS SUCH...A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM
AREA HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED INVOF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE...STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CONUS.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/15/2012

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