DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131651
SWODY2
SPC AC 131650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MORE
ZONAL...AND COMPRISED OF A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF STRONGER
FLOW...WITHIN WHICH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN OUT
OF PHASE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS NOW PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NATION IS ANTICIPATED...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
A COOL SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS. HOWEVER...WITHIN ONE OF THE BELTS OF
WESTERLIES...EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...MODELS
INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL DIG EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
STATES. A CORRESPONDING NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE
SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER...COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING...MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...PERHAPS DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE OFF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCLEAR. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK TO MODEST CAPE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC INHIBITION MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.
BUT...ASIDE FROM PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS... LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...WITH MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

..KERR.. 11/13/2012

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