ACUS02 KWNS 140610
SWODY2
SPC AC 140609
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CST WED NOV 14 2012
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER GA EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DEAMPLIFY WHILE EJECTING NEWD AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. EJECTION OF THE LEAD
WAVE SHOULD SERVE TO REINFORCE A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER
NRN FL...AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SWD THROUGH
THE PENINSULA. FARTHER WEST A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO CA THURSDAY NIGHT.
...ERN GA...NRN FL THROUGH SC AND EXTREME SERN NC...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF ERN GA...NRN FL AND SC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER GA. NEAR SFC STABLE
LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED BY EXPANSIVE ERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST IN THE 850-500 MB
LAYER PROMOTED BY COLDER AIR ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD
DURING THE DAY...BUT THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS WILL PROBABLY DECREASE
WITH TIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES AND REMAINING WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXHAUSTED BY ONGOING ACTIVITY.
...CNTRL AND SRN FL...
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL AND S FL TO
THE SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS APPEAR
PROBABLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND AS THE
FRONT IS REINFORCED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NORTH OF THIS REGION AND MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IMPLY
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...EXPECTED COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
SPARSE.
..DIAL.. 11/14/2012
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