DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041721
SWODY2
SPC AC 041720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST SUN NOV 04 2012

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX AND SW
LA...

A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REACHING THE TX COASTAL PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE MODELS KEEP SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F AND DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM AROUND HOUSTON EWD TO LAKE CHARLES LA. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE
SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE STEEP
SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER TX
COAST. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
EXHIBIT ROTATION. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS...IT
APPEARS THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT IS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX AND SW LA.

..BROYLES.. 11/04/2012

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