DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140949
SWOD48
SPC AC 140948

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST WED NOV 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4-5...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 5
WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SERN U.S. AND
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WRN
GULF DAY 5.

DAY 6-7...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE DAY 6-7 OVER TX.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...AMPLITUDE AND TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST AMONG
DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. PRIMARY CONCERN IS DEGREE
OF MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. ECMWF IS SLOWER
MOVING THE ERN U.S. TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...RESULTING IN
LESS TIME FOR GULF MODIFICATION AND A MORE LIMITED RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE GFS. GIVEN PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PREDICTABILITY THIS FORECAST.

..DIAL.. 11/14/2012

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