DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300955
SWOD48
SPC AC 300954

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2012

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN UNUSUALLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 /THU. 12-6/...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES
NOT EMERGING UNTIL THE DAY 8 PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH FAIRLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE/FAST WLY FLOW TO PREVAIL IN GENERAL ACROSS THE U.S.
MOST OF THE PERIOD...LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE
INTO THE U.S. IS EXPECTED THUS LIMITING DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

THE ONLY TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ON OR AROUND DAYS 5 AND 7
/TUE. 12-4 AND THU. 12-6/...BOTH AS A RESULT OF LARGER-SCALE
EWD-MIGRATING UPPER TROUGHS...AND ASSOCIATED SWD COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSIONS REACHING THE S CENTRAL U.S./GULF OF MEXICO. WITH BOTH OF
THESE SYSTEMS HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED CAPE/SHEAR MAGNITUDES WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

..GOSS.. 11/30/2012

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