DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070814
SWOD48
SPC AC 070814

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST WED NOV 07 2012

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE D4/SAT TO D5/SUN TIME
FRAME. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WILL PROGRESS EWD
INTO THE PLAINS...WITH COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADING A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SHOULD FORM ACROSS
MN...WITH A SECONDARY LOW ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE LOWS
WILL BE LINKED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM WRN
IA INTO WRN OK AT 00Z.

SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S AND COOL TEMPERATURES AWAY
FROM THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...AND FOCUS IT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
FROM ERN NEB INTO KS. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
MERGE AS DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. WHILE A
COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS BOWS OR A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED AREAS
OF ROTATION TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THE THREAT
AREA SHOULD BE RELATIVELY NARROW...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT.

A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT SUN
MORNING...FROM WRN IA INTO NWRN OK. A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S F IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX...BUT CAPE WILL STILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO POOR LOW TO
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL...FORCING WILL BE STRONG AND A LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD PERSIST. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT
THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO LINEAR NATURE OF THE
FORCING AS WELL INHIBITION AWAY FROM THE FRONT. MODELS SUGGEST THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALSO FILLS WITH
TIME...SUGGESTING A LESS THAN FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE.

..JEWELL.. 11/07/2012

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