MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2106

ACUS11 KWNS 071756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071755
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-072100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST WED NOV 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA OF CT/NY/NJ

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 071755Z - 072100Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR. OTHERWISE...A
BROADER TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH RATES NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH 1 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION...METARS CONFIRM MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM NEAR NYC
TO HARTFORD. THIS APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
850-700 MB JET AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT THAT THIS ASCENT WILL WANE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SNOWFALL
INTENSITY DESPITE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER A BROADER AREA AS THE
THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN COOLS AOB FREEZING. AS SUCH...SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD PEAK NEAR 1 IN/HR FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z.

..GRAMS.. 11/07/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...

LAT...LON 40667400 40017493 39767508 39737523 39847545 40037542
40287528 40687497 41637389 42037282 41917275 41217319
40667400

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