MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2124

ACUS11 KWNS 262308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262308
LAZ000-TXZ000-270115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CST MON NOV 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262308Z - 270115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY SVR WINDS
MAY BE OF CONCERN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AND THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX SWWD ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND FARTHER W INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. A FRONTAL
INFLECTION NOTED E OF JUNCTION TX APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR A
SMALL...BUT PERSISTENT...AREA OF CONVECTION. RECENT STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN CNTRL TX ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT
DELINEATES THE WRN EDGE OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE AND EXTENDS FROM
JUST NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LA TO NORTH OF AUSTIN. DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...WEST OF WHICH A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL ASCENT
OVERSPREADING THE AREA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT MAX ABOUT TO
EMERGE OVER CNTRL/SRN TX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MAY ALSO LEAD TO
AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG NEAR/SE OF
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH SVR HAIL
POSSIBLE...THOUGH ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR COULD LIMIT
THE THREAT. SVR WINDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE UNDERCUTTING
NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT MAY MITIGATE THIS CONCERN.

..COHEN/DARROW.. 11/26/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29779389 29159550 29139676 29699819 30479838 30919740
31099640 30809520 30679395 29779389

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