MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2126

ACUS11 KWNS 270415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270414
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-270645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CST MON NOV 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...CNTRL/NRN/WRN LA...PARTS OF FAR SRN
AR...CNTRL/SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270414Z - 270645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AHEAD
OF A FRONT THAT LIES APPROXIMATELY FROM S-CNTRL TX TO E OF
SHREVEPORT TO E OF GREENVILLE MS. DESPITE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS...NOCTURNAL COOLING IS
MINIMIZING BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY. WHILE CLUSTERS OF STORMS
CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...APPRECIABLE
MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS LACKING...AS THE PRIMARY SRN-STREAM VORT MAX
LAGS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH CONTINUED
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION... STORM INTENSITY WILL BE HINDERED AMIDST
ONLY MODEST DEEP SHEAR -- I.E. 20-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
REGARDLESS...A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE MOST INTENSE...DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS. A FEW
STORMS EAST OF AN INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT/CONFLUENCE
AXIS HAVE OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED WEAK STORM-SCALE ROTATION ACROSS
N-CNTRL/NERN LA -- A MANIFESTATION OF RELATIVELY GREATER LOW-LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PER VWP DATA. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE
CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SVR THREAT ASIDE FROM ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL.

..COHEN/DARROW.. 11/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30399585 31649430 32519339 33249239 33299051 32519000
31809034 31069138 30669197 30109320 29589492 29789595
30399585

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