ACUS11 KWNS 300109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300108
CAZ000-ORZ000-300345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CST THU NOV 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN COASTAL CA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 300108Z - 300345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS APPROACHES THE COAST.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF LOW TOPPED BUT STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST...WITHIN A LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND SUPPORTED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
UPPER JET.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE AT TIMES SHOWN WEAK CIRCULATIONS WITH SMALL BOWING
SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER...THE NRN BOW MAY
AFFECT DEL NORTE COUNTY BY AROUND 02-03Z...AND THEN FARTHER SWD
ACROSS COASTAL HUMBOLDT COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY WEAK...AND ONLY GETS WEAKER NEAR THE COAST
WITH A SLIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS VERY
STRONG. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS IMPACT
THE COAST...AND PERHAPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS AMBIENT FLOW IS
VERY STRONG AND MAY BE AUGMENTED BY THE FORCED LINE.
..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 11/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...
LAT...LON 40632343 39852384 39872404 40192445 40532453 40912424
41372413 41812433 42012422 42012339 40632343
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