DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120519
SWODY1
SPC AC 120517

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY TRACK
EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE
CAROLINAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN
FL PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TODAY AS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OFF THE CA/ORE COAST
ROTATES E/SE TOWARD CNTRL CA AND THE GREAT BASIN. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA IN NRN CA MAY
AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...CNTRL FL PENINSULA...
A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. DESPITE THIS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION DURING PEAK HEATING EXISTS DUE TO EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FROM GLANCING SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IN STRONGEST CELLS.
HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
ONLY WEAKLY VEERING PROFILES WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.

..LEITMAN/MOSIER/PETERS.. 12/12/2012

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