DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140532
SWODY1
SPC AC 140530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST THU DEC 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

DIGGING UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA WILL SOON EJECT ENEWD
AND APPROACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...100 KT AT 500
MB...WILL SPREAD ACROSS FAR WEST TX INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH
PEAK HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE NOTED ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY...ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG...AS SFC DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S.

INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED VORT
MAX SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
VORT INFLUENCE WHEN IT OVERSPREADS THE SFC DRYLINE-PACIFIC
FRONT...LIKELY BY 20Z ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND BECOME THE DOMINANT THREAT ACROSS OK
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS UPDRAFTS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
ELEVATED...ROOTED NEAR 850 MB.

IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW SIGNIFICANT TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE MAIN SPEED MAX OVER TX...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER ACROSS CNTRL TX THOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT. GIVEN THAT STRONGER
FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/OK CURRENT THINKING IS
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO CNTRL TX WILL
STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT THUS SEVERE PROBS ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW/LEITMAN.. 12/14/2012

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