DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021258
SWODY1
SPC AC 021256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST SUN DEC 02 2012

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR DATA DEPICT A COUPLE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EMBEDDED WITHIN
LARGER-SCALE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. THESE FEATURES WILL PROGRESS
EWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SW/NE-ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL JET
MAX SHIFTS NEWD. WEAK WAA ACCOMPANYING THE JET MAX AMIDST MARGINAL
ELEVATED INSTABILITY -- REF. 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB INDICATING
88 J/KG OF MUCAPE -- WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID-DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THEREAFTER...FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND JET MAX WILL HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
DISPLACED TO THE NE OF ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY THAT HAS BEEN
DRAWN NWD TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND
ACCOMPANYING PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN STATES.
ONE OR MORE BANDS OF STRONGLY FORCED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD EVOLVE INVOF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND DEPTH OF BUOYANCY LAYERS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY
LARGE TO SUPPORT ANY APPRECIABLE CHARGE SEPARATION OR ANY MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. AS SUCH...A
GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN ATTM.

ALSO...MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
AMIDST RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR OCCASIONALLY ENHANCING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING APPEARS TO BE TOO MINIMAL FOR A
GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA ATTM OWING TO /1/ THE LACK OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND /2/ MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF BUOYANCY DISTRIBUTED
THROUGH NARROW CAPE LAYERS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 12/02/2012

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