DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111940
SWODY1
SPC AC 111938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA...

...FL PENINSULA...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS LARGELY ON
TRACK. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE WINDS SUBTLY BACKING TO
THE SE-E INDICATE A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELDS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE ALONG A W-E BOUNDARY OFFSHORE OF TBW AND EXTENDING TO
MLB...AND AS SUCH THE SLIGHT HAS BEEN EXPANDED. WITH EARLIER CIRRUS
THINNING...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER S
FL...AND MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INITIATION AS WELL. GIVEN SEASONABLY
WARM/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND AT LEAST MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW...SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEAR
POSSIBLE FOR THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..DISPIGNA/CORFIDI.. 12/11/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012/

...FL...
BROAD...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND
REGION INTO SOUTHEAST GA. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
COUPLED WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL BE
QUITE VEERED ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF
INTENSE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED. THE AREA WHERE ORGANIZED STORMS
APPEAR MOST LIKELY WOULD BE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE SEA-BREEZE
INTERACTIONS MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE...AND OVER SOUTH FL ALONG A
WEAK REMNANT BOUNDARY. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT HAIL OR A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

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