ACUS01 KWNS 131232
SWODY1
SPC AC 131229
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST THU DEC 13 2012
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHWEST CONUS...
A POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO TURN
EWD AND ACCELERATE LATER TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...DPVA/MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SPEED MAX
ATTENDANT TO THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS AZ/NM. LATEST
HI-RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REACH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD
FRONT...BEFORE SPREADING EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL AZ. ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS DEEP-LAYER SLY
FLOW INCREASES WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY OWING TO
SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND UNFAVORABLE PHASING OF THE STRONGEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR-SFC BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
OVERNIGHT...WITH 100-300 J/KG OF MLCAPE AVAILABLE. GIVEN STRONG
DEEP-LAYER FLOW...SOME RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL EXIST...BUT OVERALL POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM TO INTRODUCE
MARGINAL SVR PROBABILITIES.
..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 12/13/2012
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