DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030547
SWODY1
SPC AC 030545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SUN DEC 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
WITH UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING FROM SK INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN WI INTO NRN TX BY
00Z...WITH SLY WINDS RESULTING IN MID TO UPPER 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF IT AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT FROM MI INTO MO...AND SWWD INTO ERN OK AND NERN TX AFTER 00Z
AS THE FRONT DROPS SWD.

...NERN MO...IL...SERN WI...
STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NERN MO INTO ERN WI AND
WRN MI BY LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN
WI...ERN IA/WRN IL AND PERHAPS INTO NERN MO BEFORE SUNSET. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL BE WEAK...RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW IN THE
LOWEST FEW KM /50 KT AT 700 MB/ SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...WRN AR...ERN OK...NERN TX AFTER 03Z...
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORM SWWD ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH LIFT
ALONG THE SAGGING BOUNDARY...BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILES.

..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 12/03/2012

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