DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301224
SWODY1
SPC AC 301222

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 AM CST SUN DEC 30 2012

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...RELATIVELY HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
EVIDENT ATTM...WITH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BRACKETED BY TROUGHING OVER
E COAST AND WRN STATES. CONNECTED SET OF VORTICITY MAXIMA FROM SRN
NV ACROSS SRN CA TO PAC W OF BAJA SPUR WILL PIVOT EWD ACROSS AZ/NM
TODAY...MERGING WITH UPSTREAM PERTURBATION NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN PORTIONS NV/CA BORDER. AS THIS
OCCURS...CLOSED 500-MB LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN NV AND PIVOT
CYCLONICALLY SWD AND EWD OVER SRN NV AND NRN AZ.
MEANWHILE...CYCLONE AMPLIFICATION AND SWD TURNING OF RELATED LOW IS
FCST OVER HUDSON BAY. NET RESULT WILL BE TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT
AND STRENGTHENING UPPER JET FROM NRN MEX ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TO LOWER MI AND SRN ONT.

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD AIR ALOFT RELATED TO DCVA FIELDS OF SERN
CONUS PERTURBATIONS MAY YIELD SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT
VERY WEAK CAPE...AND PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO BETWEEN SRN
CA COAST NEAR SAN AND SRN ROCKIES THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...THETAE
APPEARS TOO LOW AND THUNDER POTENTIAL TOO CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED FOR
GEN TSTM AREA ATTM.

AT SFC...CENTER OF LARGE/DRY CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE WILL SHIFT EWD
ACROSS MID-SOUTH AND SRN APPALACHIANS REGIONS...WITH RETURN-FLOW
MOISTURE REMAINING VERY WEAK ON ITS SWRN FRINGES OVER NWRN GULF. AS
SUCH...TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS ESSENTIALLY NIL E OF ROCKIES UNTIL
DAY-2.

..EDWARDS/LEITMAN.. 12/30/2012

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