ACUS01 KWNS 081626
SWODY1
SPC AC 081623
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST SAT DEC 08 2012
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. A PERSISTENT BAND OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN AXIS
FROM SOUTHEAST TX...ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS...INTO TN/KY. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM HELPS TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET.
OVERALL CAPE VALUES ARE WEAK ALONG THIS CORRIDOR DUE TO POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EAST TX
INTO LA/AR WHERE MODELS SUGGEST MODEST HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR. LOW/MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...SUPPORTING SOME RISK OF ORGANIZED STORMS. EVEN A
WEAK SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
..HART/DISPIGNA.. 12/08/2012
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