DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040539
SWODY1
SPC AC 040537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST MON DEC 03 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL BE DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE SITUATED FROM WRN AR INTO NRN TX TUE
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD ACROSS ERN TX...LA AND MS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY ALONG THE FRONT...WHERE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...SERN TX INTO LA...WRN MS...SRN AR...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM CNTRL TX INTO AR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHERE AROUND 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST TO EXIST. WIND
PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT WEAK SELY SFC WINDS
BENEATH W TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS. BOTH MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
EVOLVE ALONG AND PROPAGATE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF MERGING OUTFLOWS SHOULD PRECLUDE A
TORNADO THREAT.

..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 12/04/2012

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