DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071240
SWODY1
SPC AC 071238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST FRI DEC 07 2012

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA MOVING FROM THE PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...ONE WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EWD OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST...AND A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MS AND OH
VALLEYS BY TONIGHT. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED FROM SRN MO TO
INDIANA/NW OH IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING POSITIVE TILT WAVE...AND A
STRONGER SPEED MAX CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM E X AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN A WEAK WAA REGIME...MAINLY FROM 06-12Z.

ELSEWHERE...A COASTAL FRONT COULD BACK SLIGHTLY WWD INTO ERN NC
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING FOR WEAK
BUOYANCY AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM RISK INLAND...THOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 12/07/2012

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