DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231629
SWODY1
SPC AC 231627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE IMPACTS NRN CA AND THE GREAT
BASIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BAND
OF DEEP ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

...SE TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID
60S/ WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT NOW IN
OK. MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS SE TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SIMILAR ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL SPREAD NEWD OVER LA/MS OVERNIGHT ON A
30 KT SWLY LLJ. MAINLY LOW-TOPPED/WARM RAIN PROCESS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS LA/MS...WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS THE MIDLEVEL WAVE ARRIVES AND
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. THE SEVERE STORM RISK APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LIMITED GIVEN THE POOR PHASING OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH THE
WEAK SYNOPTIC WAVE...ALONG WITH THE MODEST INSTABILITY/WARM SECTOR
VERTICAL SHEAR.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 12/23/2012

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