DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130032
SWODY1
SPC AC 130030

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CST WED DEC 12 2012

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN U.S...

13/00Z SOUNDING FROM FFC WAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
THAN EARLIER NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 200 J/KG
IF LIFTING A 700 MB PARCEL. ISOLATED LIGHTING IS NOTED WITH
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE EXPANDED
THUNDER PROBABILITIES NWD. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK SFC CYCLONE HAS
SHIFTED OFF THE NRN FL PENINSULA AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH SWD MOVING WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ENHANCED PROBS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...CA...

13/00Z SOUNDING FROM OAK EXHIBITS WEAK SBCAPE BENEATH UPPER TROUGH
AS IT DIGS SEWD. COOL PROFILES AND WEAK CONVERGENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY
YET PROVE ADEQUATE FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE SPARSE THE REST OF THE TONIGHT.

..DARROW.. 12/13/2012

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