DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110558
SWODY2
SPC AC 110557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST MON DEC 10 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF INTERIOR NORTH
AMERICA STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO A MORE DISTINCT SPLIT
UPPER FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THESE BRANCHES APPEARS LIKELY TO
EXTEND IN GENERALLY ZONAL FASHION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...WHILE A BRANCH TO
THE SOUTH BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER STATES. WITHIN THIS
LATTER STREAM...AND TO THE SOUTH OF A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
RIDGE SHIFTING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...CONTRIBUTING TO LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE THIS
OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
BROADEN EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS
REMNANT UPPER TROUGHING LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

THE VARIOUS MODELS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...AND GENERALLY TO THE SLOWER
SIDE OF WHAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED. THIS COULD
HAVE SOME IMPACT ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE NATION WILL BE
GENERALLY STABLE WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ACCELERATING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE WESTERN
GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY NORTH OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN ITS SLOWER
MOVEMENT...AND PERHAPS BETTER PHASING WITH A STRENGTHENING BELT OF
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC...ASSOCIATED LIFT COULD ENHANCE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PENINSULA. THE MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION REMAINS
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...AND GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
ANTICIPATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND SHEAR...THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER...IT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 12/11/2012

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