DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170617
SWODY2
SPC AC 170616

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD TUESDAY WITH TRAILING
PORTION OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH FL. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN STATES AND APPROACH THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN CA THROUGH PACIFIC NW COASTS...

DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-35 C AT 500 MB/ WITHIN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED COLD CORE
CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE. ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS MORE PROBABLE
DURING FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NEAR THE COASTS BEFORE UPPER LEVEL
THERMAL THROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER INLAND.

...FL...

HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS FROM WEST. FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH ONLY WEAK FRONTAL FORCING SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN LOW.

..DIAL.. 12/17/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.