DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190643
SWODY2
SPC AC 190641

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
AMPLIFYING OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY THROUGH THE ERN
U.S. THURSDAY...WHILE PRIMARY SFC LOW DEEPENS AND OCCLUDES AS IT
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT
REGION OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER JET. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SERN U.S. BEFORE MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SERN STATES...

RELATIVELY FAST SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN WAKE OF YESTERDAYS GULF
FRONTAL INTRUSION WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RECOVERY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. NEAR-SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM UPPER 60S NEAR THE GULF COAST TO AROUND 60 OVER
CNTRL PARTS OF THE SERN STATES. ANOTHER NWD SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 70 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. WEAK LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LIMITED NWD ADVECTION OF
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGEST THETA-E ADVECTION AND ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH MUCAPE AOB 400 J/KG.

FORCED BANDS OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING THROUGH THE SERN STATES. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WINDS THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER WITH 50-60+ KT FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SFC...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF
TRANSFERRING HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR DOWNWARD...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT STILL APPEARS THE
WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY ULTIMATELY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2012

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