DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231733
SWODY2
SPC AC 231731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE ERN U.S. AND EVENTUALLY
MOVES INTO THE ERN ATLANTIC...A SECOND TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC
NW/GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO DIG/AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EMERGE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

AS THIS FEATURE DIGS SEWD...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED --
INITIALLY OVER THE SERN CO VICINITY. THROUGH LATTER STAGES OF THE
PERIOD...THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD...REACHING N TX BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS COLD AIR DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CHRISTMAS DAY WINTRY WEATHER OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION...THUNDERSTORMS -- AND
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF E TX AND
POSSIBLY ADJACENT AREAS OF LA.

...E TX INTO LA...
WHILE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EVOLVE
AFTER DARK...AND FARTHER TO THE W.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE NWD
WILL RESULT IN A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. AS WARM ADVECTION/QG
ASCENT INCREASES...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE AS VEERING WINDS/SHEAR
INCREASES TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION. THE PRIMARY THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE. WHILE
SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD E OF THE SABINE RIVER LATE...THE
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST OVER E TX FROM MID EVENING ONWARD.

..GOSS.. 12/23/2012

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