DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030655
SWODY2
SPC AC 030654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST MON DEC 03 2012

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY WILL CONTINUE
ITS EWD PROGRESSION...EXPANDING TO COVER ALL OF ERN NOAM BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...A MORE
ZONAL/LOWER-AMPLITUDE WLY FLOW FIELD WILL EXPAND OVER THE
WEST...THOUGH A TREND TOWARD WEAKLY CYCLONIC CURVATURE WILL OCCUR AS
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WRN CANADA COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ERN UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION SWWD INTO NERN TX WILL ALSO MAKE EWD PROGRESS WITH TIME
-- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER SW...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT MORE
SLOWLY SEWD...LINGERING INVOF THE UPPER TX/CENTRAL GULF COASTS
THROUGH LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD.

AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VERY WEAK
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING -- POSSIBLY AS FAR NEWD AS THE MID/UPPER OH
VALLEY. MOST SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
INVOF THE LOWER MS AND SABINE RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE GREATER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPE.
HAVING SAID THAT...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE LOW. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL FORECASTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE LIKELY TO REMAIN AOB 30
KT ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH -- COMBINED WITH ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY -- SUGGESTS DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE STORMS. WHILE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR IN A FEW AREAS...SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW 5%.

..GOSS.. 12/03/2012

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