DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131738
SWODY2
SPC AC 131737

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CST THU DEC 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE TIED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH /CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR COASTAL SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHERN BAJA/ OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS A COLD
FRONT ACCELERATES/SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS...
MODEST/INITIAL NATURE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...AND
RAMIFICATIONS ON ASSOCIATED NEAR-SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION...WILL PRECLUDE A MORE CERTAIN/CONSIDERABLE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS A POTENT UPPER TROUGH/JET STREAK OTHERWISE EMERGES FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS STEADY HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR AND THE EXIT
REGION OF STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL JET REACHES THE PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AN ADVANCING FRONT WILL INTERCEPT RELATIVELY MODEST
MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND THE SURROUNDING SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY RELEGATED TO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL TX THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

WHILE MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MEAGER NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SURFACE BASED
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/NORTHWEST TX AND THE SURROUNDING HIGH PLAINS
INCLUDING OK PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS AND PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CO. PENDING THE EXACT DEGREE/EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...A FEW
RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...INCREASINGLY ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REST OF KS/OK TO THE OZARKS...WHILE
OTHER TSTMS MAY REMAIN NEAR SURFACE-BASED FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR THE COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX. WHILE SOME OF THESE MAY REMAIN
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE...OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD WANE INTO MID/LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER.. 12/13/2012

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