DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071726
SWODY2
SPC AC 071725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST FRI DEC 07 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ARKLATEX/MID MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM EAST TX
EXTENDING ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 F. ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE MOIST
SECTOR...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AS THE SFC LOW
MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE SATURDAY EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LITTLE ROCK AND MEMPHIS AT 06Z/SUN SHOW MLCAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT. IN
SPITE OF THE POOR LAPSE RATES...THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORM
COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 12/07/2012

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