DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151732
SWODY2
SPC AC 151730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEAST TX/CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

...SOUTHEAST TX/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO TN VALLEY...
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS ON SUNDAY. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CROSS
THE REGION /AND ADJACENT MIDWEST/ DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
PLAINS/OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION AND A STEADY MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF A FRONT. RELATIVELY
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A LIMITED NORTHWARD MOISTURE
RETURN...ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...SHOULD
LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
SO...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/PERHAPS
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA/PARTS OF MS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY NEAR AN ADVANCING/ACCELERATING COLD
FRONT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY IN THESE AREAS IN
THE PRESENCE OF A HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS...WITH THE REGION
INCREASINGLY COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS/OZARKS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHERE STORMS DO
INCREASE/MATURE...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50-80 KT /0-6 KM/ WILL SUPPORT
FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/SOME SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..GUYER.. 12/15/2012

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