DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160811
SWODY3
SPC AC 160809

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH TRAILING PORTION
OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH FL. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES RESULTING IN
DEEPENING OF A LEE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN CA THROUGH PACIFIC NW COASTS...

DESPITE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-35 C AT 500 MB/ WITHIN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED COLD CORE
CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS MORE PROBABLE
DURING FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE COAST.

...FL...

HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS FROM WEST. FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING INTO THE REGION...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH ONLY WEAK FRONTAL FORCING SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 12/16/2012

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