DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 220807
SWODY3
SPC AC 220805

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX COASTAL PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MONDAY AND INTO THE ROCKIES. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL RETURN ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AND LOWER
MS VALLEY. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN THE SRN
PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SERN
THIRD OF TX EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN LA. AT THIS POINT...MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE TX IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F WITH
ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST...THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL GO WITH A SEE TEXT FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..BROYLES.. 12/22/2012

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