DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240832
SWODY3
SPC AC 240831

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF
COAST STATES...FL PENINSULA...CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...CAROLINAS/ERN GULF COAST STATES/MID-ATLANTIC...
AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AT DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AS A SLAB OF VERY STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVES FROM THE ERN GULF COAST STATES EWD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE STRONG FORCING...A
WELL-DEVELOPED SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THIS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM REMAINING INTACT ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z/WED AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE IN ERN NC AND
NCNTRL SC SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 60S F. THIS
MAY ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A WELL-DEVELOPED
LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WINDS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 50 KT JUST ABOVE THE SFC
WHICH SHOULD ENABLE ANY LINE OF STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING
WIND DAMAGE. IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN INITIATE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL-LINE...THEN A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO.
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ANY SEVERE
THREAT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS COULD BECOME ENHANCED. FOR
THIS REASON...A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY WITH A SIGNIFICANT
HATCHED AREA APPEARS WARRANTED.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...ANY SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED DUE TO WEAKENING
INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT. TO THE SOUTH ACROSS ERN GA AND NRN
FL...A SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST BUT THE THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT DUE TO WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 12/24/2012

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