DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010957
SWOD48
SPC AC 010956

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SAT DEC 01 2012

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST
HALF OF DAY 6 /THU. 12-6/...WHEN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS IN DEPICTION OF A TROUGH CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND
ADJACENT NRN U.S. BECOME MANIFEST. WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
PUSHED SWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE DAY 6 AND INTO DAY
7. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER TO
ADVANCE SEWD -- NOT REACHING THE TX GULF COAST UNTIL THE START OF
DAY 8. GIVEN THESE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES -- CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ADDRESSED THIS
FORECAST.

A PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION TO THE GULF COAST REGION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR DAY 4 /TUE. 12-4/ HOWEVER. AS THIS BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH A
MOIST/MODESTLY DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RESULT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AT BEST HOWEVER...AS RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MODEST CAPE PRECLUDES ANY NEED
FOR AREAL OUTLOOK ISSUANCE ATTM.

..GOSS.. 12/01/2012

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