DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110956
SWOD48
SPC AC 110955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH MODEST SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS COMING FRIDAY/SATURDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST IN PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ONLY BEING IN THE
PROCESS OF RETURNING AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES... JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN
SO...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY...THROUGH
ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WAVE
MAY BE TO HELP ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION...TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEXT
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE
SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...THOUGH...IS
STILL MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGION SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE AN AREA.

..KERR.. 12/11/2012

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