DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140935
SWOD48
SPC AC 140935

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS AND 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF. NEWD
ADVECTION OF MODIFIED CP AIR SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. LATEST ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT
MIGHT INCREASE FROM SERN GA THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS NEWD WITHIN A WEAK CAPE AND HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES AND POTENTIAL THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS SUGGEST
OVERALL THREAT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.

BEYOND DAY 4...LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED UNTIL DAY 6 OR 7
WHEN ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS MOVES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL
IMPACT MOISTURE RETURN AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL.
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SUGGESTING A GREATER DEGREE OF
MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY THAN GFS WHICH IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
MORE PROGRESSIVE.

..DIAL.. 12/14/2012

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