DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 151000
SWOD48
SPC AC 151000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DAY 4 AS ERN U.S.
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXIT THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE INLAND.

LATE DAY 5-DAY 6...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE LATER DAY 5 AND
DAY 6 AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE
WRN STATES...CONTINUING INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE DAY 5 AND THE
LOWER-MID MS AND TN VALLEYS DAY 6. DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE THAT WILL ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS DAY 5 INTO THE OH VALLEY BY DAY 6. TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MS AND TN
VALLEYS...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FORCED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS.

GFS...ECMWF...UKMET DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON GENERAL SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS EXIST AMONG THE MODELS SUCH AS
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH AND RELATED INTENSITY OF SFC LOW
WHICH WILL IMPACT QUALITY AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS
REASON WILL NOT INTRODUCE A HIGHER COVERAGE SEVERE AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT RE-EVALUATE IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 12/15/2012

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