DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 161017
SWOD48
SPC AC 161016

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0416 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4-5...MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF A STRONG
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS
DAY 4 /THURSDAY/...LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND SERN STATES DAY 5. THIS SYSTEM WILL INDUCE A STRONG
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM KS/OK THURSDAY INTO THE OH VALLEY
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SERN STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG A STRONG LLJ RESULTING IN
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL
DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK LAPSE RATES. DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EXPECT A LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY AND SERN STATES DAY 5. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE NEAR-SFC AND
DEEP-LAYER FLOW...DAMAGING WIND MAY BE A THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS EWD.

..DIAL.. 12/16/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.