DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170955
SWOD48
SPC AC 170954

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ERN
U.S. THURSDAY...WHILE ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND SERN STATES BEFORE MOVING OFF ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT. SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...WHICH COMBINED
WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...A FORCED BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES AND 50+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SFC...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. WHILE AT
LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE REINTRODUCED IN LATER
UPDATES...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT
IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A 30% COVERAGE AREA AT THIS TIME.

DAYS 5-8...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 7 AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CP HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS
THE GULF WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN DURING MOST OF THIS TIME
FRAME.

..DIAL.. 12/17/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.