ACUS48 KWNS 180910
SWOD48
SPC AC 180909
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4-6...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD AS CP HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF...LIMITING RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE.
DAY 7-8...DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW ENOUGH DIFFERENCE FROM RUN TO
RUN AND AMONG THEMSELVES...AND GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO
INDICATE ENOUGH DISPERSION TO SUGGEST LOW PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...GENERAL PATTERN AMONG THE MODELS IS FOR AN
UPPER TROUGH TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN STATES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS DAY
7 WITH PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE TX AND
LOWER MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR. A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION DAY 7-8...BUT PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
DELINEATE AN OUTLOOK AREA.
..DIAL.. 12/18/2012
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