DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020954
SWOD48
SPC AC 020953

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST SUN DEC 02 2012

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENCY WITHIN MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEARS TO EXIST THROUGH THE
DAY 5 PERIOD /THU. 12-6/...WITH A TROUGH SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST DAY 4 /WED. 12-5/ FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF BROADLY/WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CONUS.

THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE FLOW SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE U.S. BEGINNING
DAY 6...AS IT DEPICTS AN EVOLVING TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SOLUTION DEVIATES FROM THE GFS --
WHICH DOES NOT SHOW SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY 7 PERIOD...ROUGHLY 36 HOURS LATER THAN THE ECMWF.

GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES WHICH EMERGE IN THE MODELS BEGINNING EARLY DAY
6...CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED TO
THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS DAY 4 TO DAY 5
TIME FRAME...LITTLE DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT...WITH THE
MAIN FEATURE DURING THIS TIME PROGGED TO BE THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAKER/SRN PORTION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY PROGGED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 12/02/2012

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