DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230946
SWOD48
SPC AC 230945

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY AND THE SRN
EXTENSION OF A NEGATIVELY-TILED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF
COAST STATES. THIS SETUP WOULD SUGGEST A STRONG CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
COULD BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING/DAY 4 ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MODELS MOVE THE TROUGH QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY MIDDAY. A
SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE CAROLINAS
AROUND MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY FURTHER NORTH IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY/DAY 5...ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE ROCKIES WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES ON FRIDAY/DAY 6. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE
LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST IN THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. FOR THIS REASON AND FOR CONCERNS WITH MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE CAROLINAS...A SEVERE THREAT AREA WILL NOT BE ADDED
ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 12/23/2012

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